Using remote sensing to quantify the additional climate benefits of California forest carbon offset projects.

Nature-based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap-and-trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the California Air Resources Board's IFM protocol. As many of these projects approach their 10th year, we now have the opportunity to assess their effectiveness, identify best practices, and suggest improvements toward future protocol revisions. In this study, we used remote sensing-based datasets to evaluate the carbon trends and harvest histories of 37 IFM projects in California. Despite some current limitations and biases, these datasets can be used to quantify carbon accumulation and harvest rates in offset project lands relative to nearby similar "control" lands before and after the projects began. Five lines of evidence suggest that the carbon accumulated in offset projects to date has generally not been additional to what might have otherwise occurred: (1) most forests in northwestern California have been accumulating carbon since at least the mid-1980s and continue to accumulate carbon, whether enrolled in offset projects or not; (2) harvest rates were high in large timber company project lands before IFM initiation, suggesting they are earning carbon credits for forests in recovery; (3) projects are often located on lands with higher densities of low-timber-value species; (4) carbon accumulation rates have not yet increased on lands that enroll as offset projects, relative to their pre-enrollment levels; and (5) harvest rates have not decreased on most project lands since offset project initiation. These patterns suggest that the current protocol should be improved to robustly measure and reward additionality. In general, our framework of geospatial analyses offers an important and independent means to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon offsets program, especially as these data products continue improving and as offsets receive attention as a climate mitigation strategy.

Future climate risks from stress, insects and fire across US forests.

Forests are currently a substantial carbon sink globally. Many climate change mitigation strategies leverage forest preservation and expansion, but rely on forests storing carbon for decades to centuries. Yet climate-driven disturbances pose critical risks to the long-term stability of forest carbon. We quantify the climate drivers that influence wildfire and climate stress-driven tree mortality, including a separate insect-driven tree mortality, for the contiguous United States for current (1984-2018) and project these future disturbance risks over the 21st century. We find that current risks are widespread and projected to increase across different emissions scenarios by a factor of >4 for fire and >1.3 for climate-stress mortality. These forest disturbance risks highlight pervasive climate-sensitive disturbance impacts on US forests and raise questions about the risk management approach taken by forest carbon offset policies. Our results provide US-wide risk maps of key climate-sensitive disturbances for improving carbon cycle modeling, conservation and climate policy.

Systematic over-crediting in California's forest carbon offsets program.

Carbon offsets are widely used by individuals, corporations, and governments to mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions on the assumption that offsets reflect equivalent climate benefits achieved elsewhere. These climate-equivalence claims depend on offsets providing real and additional climate benefits beyond what would have happened, counterfactually, without the offsets project. Here, we evaluate the design of California's prominent forest carbon offsets program and demonstrate that its climate-equivalence claims fall far short on the basis of directly observable evidence. By design, California's program awards large volumes of offset credits to forest projects with carbon stocks that exceed regional averages. This paradigm allows for adverse selection, which could occur if project developers preferentially select forests that are ecologically distinct from unrepresentative regional averages. By digitizing and analyzing comprehensive offset project records alongside detailed forest inventory data, we provide direct evidence that comparing projects against coarse regional carbon averages has led to systematic over-crediting of 30.0 million tCO2 e (90% CI: 20.5-38.6 million tCO2 e) or 29.4% of the credits we analyzed (90% CI: 20.1%-37.8%). These excess credits are worth an estimated $410 million (90% CI: $280-$528 million) at recent market prices. Rather than improve forest management to store additional carbon, California's forest offsets program creates incentives to generate offset credits that do not reflect real climate benefits.

Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests.

Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.

Terrestrial gross primary production: Using NIRV to scale from site to globe.

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the largest and one of the most uncertain fluxes in the global carbon cycle. We find that near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRV ), a remotely sensed measure of canopy structure, accurately predicts photosynthesis at FLUXNET validation sites at monthly to annual timescales (R2  = 0.68), without the need for difficult to acquire information about environmental factors that constrain photosynthesis at short timescales. Scaling the relationship between gross primary production (GPP) and NIRV from FLUXNET eddy covariance sites, we estimate global annual terrestrial photosynthesis to be 147 Pg C/year (95% credible interval 131-163 Pg C/year), which falls between bottom-up GPP estimates and the top-down global constraint on GPP from oxygen isotopes. NIRV -derived estimates of GPP are systematically higher than existing bottom-up estimates, especially throughout the midlatitudes. Progress in improving estimated GPP from NIRV can come from improved cloud screening in satellite data and increased resolution of vegetation characteristics, especially details about plant photosynthetic pathway.

Within-species patterns challenge our understanding of the leaf economics spectrum.

The utility of plant functional traits for predictive ecology relies on our ability to interpret trait variation across multiple taxonomic and ecological scales. Using extensive data sets of trait variation within species, across species and across communities, we analysed whether and at what scales leaf economics spectrum (LES) traits show predicted trait-trait covariation. We found that most variation in LES traits is often, but not universally, at high taxonomic levels (between families or genera in a family). However, we found that trait covariation shows distinct taxonomic scale dependence, with some trait correlations showing opposite signs within vs. across species. LES traits responded independently to environmental gradients within species, with few shared environmental responses across traits or across scales. We conclude that, at small taxonomic scales, plasticity may obscure or reverse the broad evolutionary linkages between leaf traits, meaning that variation in LES traits cannot always be interpreted as differences in resource use strategy.

Mobile MUTE specifies subsidiary cells to build physiologically improved grass stomata.

Plants optimize carbon assimilation while limiting water loss by adjusting stomatal aperture. In grasses, a developmental innovation-the addition of subsidiary cells (SCs) flanking two dumbbell-shaped guard cells (GCs)-is linked to improved stomatal physiology. Here, we identify a transcription factor necessary and sufficient for SC formation in the wheat relative Brachypodium distachyon. Unexpectedly, the transcription factor is an ortholog of the stomatal regulator AtMUTE, which defines GC precursor fate in Arabidopsis The novel role of BdMUTE in specifying lateral SCs appears linked to its acquisition of cell-to-cell mobility in Brachypodium Physiological analyses on SC-less plants experimentally support classic hypotheses that SCs permit greater stomatal responsiveness and larger range of pore apertures. Manipulation of SC formation and function in crops, therefore, may be an effective approach to enhance plant performance.

Canopy near-infrared reflectance and terrestrial photosynthesis.

Global estimates of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) remain highly uncertain, despite decades of satellite measurements and intensive in situ monitoring. We report a new approach for quantifying the near-infrared reflectance of terrestrial vegetation (NIRV). NIRV provides a foundation for a new approach to estimate GPP that consistently untangles the confounding effects of background brightness, leaf area, and the distribution of photosynthetic capacity with depth in canopies using existing moderate spatial and spectral resolution satellite sensors. NIRV is strongly correlated with solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, a direct index of photons intercepted by chlorophyll, and with site-level and globally gridded estimates of GPP. NIRV makes it possible to use existing and future reflectance data as a starting point for accurately estimating GPP.

Improving the monitoring of crop productivity using spaceborne solar-induced fluorescence.

Large-scale monitoring of crop growth and yield has important value for forecasting food production and prices and ensuring regional food security. A newly emerging satellite retrieval, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) of chlorophyll, provides for the first time a direct measurement related to plant photosynthetic activity (i.e. electron transport rate). Here, we provide a framework to link SIF retrievals and crop yield, accounting for stoichiometry, photosynthetic pathways, and respiration losses. We apply this framework to estimate United States crop productivity for 2007-2012, where we use the spaceborne SIF retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 satellite, benchmarked with county-level crop yield statistics, and compare it with various traditional crop monitoring approaches. We find that a SIF-based approach accounting for photosynthetic pathways (i.e. C3 and C4 crops) provides the best measure of crop productivity among these approaches, despite the fact that SIF sensors are not yet optimized for terrestrial applications. We further show that SIF provides the ability to infer the impacts of environmental stresses on autotrophic respiration and carbon-use-efficiency, with a substantial sensitivity of both to high temperatures. These results indicate new opportunities for improved mechanistic understanding of crop yield responses to climate variability and change.

Forest productivity and water stress in Amazonia: observations from GOSAT chlorophyll fluorescence.

It is unclear to what extent seasonal water stress impacts on plant productivity over Amazonia. Using new Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) satellite measurements of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, we show that midday fluorescence varies with water availability, both of which decrease in the dry season over Amazonian regions with substantial dry season length, suggesting a parallel decrease in gross primary production (GPP). Using additional SeaWinds Scatterometer onboard QuikSCAT satellite measurements of canopy water content, we found a concomitant decrease in daily storage of canopy water content within branches and leaves during the dry season, supporting our conclusion. A large part (r(2) = 0.75) of the variance in observed monthly midday fluorescence from GOSAT is explained by water stress over moderately stressed evergreen forests over Amazonia, which is reproduced by model simulations that include a full physiological representation of photosynthesis and fluorescence. The strong relationship between GOSAT and model fluorescence (r(2) = 0.79) was obtained using a fixed leaf area index, indicating that GPP changes are more related to environmental conditions than chlorophyll contents. When the dry season extended to drought in 2010 over Amazonia, midday basin-wide GPP was reduced by 15 per cent compared with 2009.